Vehicle Electrification Demands a Rise in Copper Mining
The electrification of the global vehicle fleet, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, necessitates a 55% increase in new copper mines, according to a recent International Energy Forum study. The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) significantly elevates the demand for copper, essential for various components such as electric motors, batteries, and wiring. This push towards a greener future underscores the urgent need to enhance copper production capabilities. The study emphasizes that even without considering the energy transition, meeting business-as-usual trends requires mining at least 115% more copper than what was mined pre-2018.
Supply-Demand Disconnect in Copper Production
Despite efforts to increase copper production, there remains a substantial gap between supply and demand. Current projections estimate that annual copper mine output will rise by 82% from 20.4 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020 to 37.1 Mt by 2050, including contributions from recycling. However, production is expected to peak at 48.7Mt around 2086. The study analyzed various decarbonization scenarios, revealing that the net-zero target necessitates the establishment of at least 194 new copper mines, equivalent to six new mines annually. Even under the baseline scenario, maintaining current trends will require 35 new mines, a number that could rise to 43 if copper recycling does not increase from 2018 levels.
The Challenge of Meeting EV Manufacturing Goals
Achieving the goal of 100% EV manufacture by 2035 presents an unprecedented challenge in copper mining. Historically, deviations from typical mine production have amounted to about 1 million tonnes annually over 15 years. In contrast, the demand driven by EV manufacturing will necessitate a fivefold increase, sustained over three decades. After accounting for recycling, this equates to an additional 8.1 million tonnes of copper required by 2035 and 9.6 million tonnes by 2040. These figures highlight the significant scaling-up needed in copper production to meet the ambitious targets set for vehicle electrification.
The Time-Consuming Nature of Mining Expansion
The feasibility of ramping up copper mining to meet these demands also raises questions about resource availability and extraction speed. Under the baseline scenario, approximately 1.69 billion tonnes of copper will be mined by 2050, which is 26% of the estimated total copper resource of 6.66 billion tonnes. This estimate aligns closely with the US Geological Survey’s figure of 5.6 billion tonnes. Should mining extend to greater depths or the seafloor, resources could potentially increase to 89 billion tonnes and 241 billion tonnes, respectively. Despite the abundant resources, the challenge lies in the lengthy process of bringing new mines online. From discovery to operation, the average time frame for new mines is 23 years, highlighting the need for strategic planning and swift action to meet future copper demands.
