Decline in Major Gold Discoveries Threatens Future Supply Growth
The latest analysis from S&P Global reveals a growing concern over the diminishing number and size of new gold discoveries, casting doubt on future gold supply growth. Over the past few years, new gold finds have become increasingly rare, with only five major discoveries recorded since 2020, contributing 17 million ounces to global reserves. These new additions bring the total gold discoveries from 1990 to 2023 to 350, containing approximately 2.9 billion ounces. While this represents a 3% rise from the 2023 data, the overall trend is troubling, as most of these reserves were located years ago and only recently met the criteria for inclusion in S&P’s database.
A major gold discovery, as defined by S&P Global, includes at least 2 million ounces in reserves, resources, and past production. However, the most recent discoveries pale in comparison to those of previous decades. The average size of discoveries since 2020 stands at 3.5 million ounces, a significant drop from the 5.5 million-ounce average seen between 2010 and 2019. Notably, none of the gold finds made in the last decade have ranked among the 30 largest discoveries, emphasizing the diminishing scale of new finds and posing challenges to sustaining future production levels.
S&P Global’s report highlights that, despite the annual growth in the number of discoveries, most of the substantial assets were discovered years ago. These reserves only recently met the firm’s criteria for a major discovery, raising concerns that the pipeline of new large-scale deposits is drying up. The five recent discoveries account for just 22% of the 79 million ounces added in the 2024 update, underlining the slowdown in significant new finds. This shrinking discovery rate threatens the future of global gold supply, especially as older mines reach maturity and new sources become harder to find.
Looking ahead, S&P’s forecast suggests that global gold supply will peak in 2026 at around 110 million ounces, primarily driven by increased production in gold-rich countries such as Australia, Canada, and the United States. However, by 2028, global gold production is expected to decline to 103 million ounces, as supply from these key regions tapers off. The scarcity of new, high-quality gold discoveries puts the long-term stability of gold supply at risk, potentially driving prices higher as demand continues to outstrip future production.
